The reason that ALL gold analysts to a man (and woman) are so terrible? They don’t own gold

If one was looking for the clearest example of just why every mainstream gold analyst has, year-in year-out FAILED to see gold in fact go up year-in, year-out, this is it.

Here is a precious metals analyst AND CNBC contributor talking about why she thinks gold is going much lower, $1140 in fact. But listen out right at the end for a simply stunning admission:

Did you catch that? She hasn’t bought ANY gold. Now, gold is up some 600% since the bull got going back in 2000, and this ‘analyst’ hasn’t bought a single ounce during that entire time. How can anyone have any credibility if they’ve missed one of the strongest bull markets in recent memory.

And that’s not all she’s missed. Her ‘technical analysis’ argues that because gold had a 27.5% correction back in 2008 its is going to do the same again.

Here’s a weekly gold chart covering the past 8 years:

(click for sharper image)

Firstly, we totally agree with Peter Schiff, how anyone can look at about as classic a looking super-bull-market chart as you can get and think its a ‘sell’ defiles belief. Secondly, as you can see since 2006 there has been 3 major corrections. The first one was 17.5% top-to-bottom, the second 27.5% and this current one which was 17%.

As we talked about at the end of May the current correction had a lot more in common with the sell-off in 2006 than the one in 2008/9. We noted:

Whilst we’ve made a comparison to this most recent pull-back in the gold price and the sell-off that happened back at the end of 2008, there is another pull-back during this gold bull run that actually bears a much closer resemblance than the one in 2008.

It is the pull-back that occurred during the first half of 2006 – and as you can see from these charts the side-by-side comparison is quite noticeable.

In fact it’s really worth putting that 27.5% sell-off in 2008 into perspective, if you cast your minds back the whole world was going to hell in a hand basket and crucially the market was unsure whether helicopter Ben would live up to his namesake and print money.

Well he did, and this time round the market is in little doubt that he will do ‘whatever it takes’ to make sure there is no repeat of 2008. So to think that there is going to be such a repeat and that gold is going to $1140 seems very hard to believe – especially when you look around the world and see that every major central bank is running out of toner ink for their 24/7 printing operations.

But crucially look at what all three sell-offs have in common, including the one from 2008. They ALL pullback to their previous high and use that as solid support. This latest pull-back has been no different from the other two.

So yes, gold has sold off before, but not just in 2008 but also in 2006. in fact sell-offs are all part of a healthy and strong bull market, and now gold has sold-off again, so we can now add to that list, the sell-off in 2012,  which is now over.

So basically she’s looking/waiting for a sell-off/correction that has already happened. In short she’s missed it.

To be fair she did say there was a chance gold would move to the upside, but with the following phrases it’s rather clear that the analyst was firmly in the ‘bearish’ camp:

• This is bearish pattern
• It’s likely to confirm this pattern down $1530 or so for a target of $1140
• It looks like gold could do that again for a big 30% decline

So there you have it, we’ll leave it to you to decide whether you should listen to someone who professes to be a gold analyst, but hasn’t bought a single ounce in the entire bull gold run. We for one find the best reaction to this sort of poorly understood, gold-bashing nonsense from a non-gold buyer is that of the rest of the studio in that clip above – loud laughs. And we’re not the only one’s who are laughing…

Price of gold when she appeared – $1672

Gold price today – $1733

Nuff said.

Related posts:

1. ECB money injection not a reason for optimism
2. New Zealand Woman yet to claim $50,000 Gold Bullion Prize

Link to this article: : http://www.goldmadesimplenews.com/markets/the-reason-that-all-gold-analysts-to-a-man-and-woman-are-so-terrible-they-dont-own-gold-7885/

Posted by Thomas Paterson on Sep 13 2012. Filed under Interviews, Markets. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0. You can skip to the end and leave a response. Pinging is currently not allowed.